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Cancer Survival Prediction

Conditional Survival

Head and Neck Cancer


Survival probability changes over time for cancer patients, and estimates of prognosis made at the time of diagnosis are no longer applicable after a patient has already survived for a period of time after diagnosis and treatment. Conditional survival (CS) is a more accurate estimate of prognosis for these cancer survivors because it accounts for the continuously changing hazard rates over time. CS estimates can be helpful for patients and providers who seek more accurate prognostic estimates to help guide health-related decisions. This information enables cancer survivors to more accurately assess whether their prognosis is improving or declining over time. It can also be used by providers to determine appropriate follow-up and surveillance testing.

This prediction calculator will make an individualized estimate of the conditional survival for a head & neck cancer patient, after a certain period of time has passed since diagnosis and treatment.

Enter the patient details below and the number of months since diagnosis to calculate the patient's conditional survival, i.e., the likelihood of surviving additional years given that he or she has already survived a period of time.

Survival Prediction Calculator: Head & Neck Cancer

Probability of surviving additional years given
months already survived:

    • 0 Yr
    • 1 Yr
    • 2 Yrs
    • 3 Yrs
    • 4 Yrs
    • 5 Yrs

Conditional survival prediction is calculated from a Cox proportional hazards model built from a series of cancer patients from the SEER 17 database who were diagnosed with head and neck cancer between 1988-1998. For more information, see Wang SJ, Wissel AR, Ord CB, Kalpathy-Cramer J, Fuller CD, Holland JM, Gross ND. Individualized Estimation of Conditional Survival for Patients with Head and Neck Cancer. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg, 2011, 145(1):71-73.